NFL Week 19 Predictions
| HOME | AWAY | HOME MARGIN |
|---|---|---|
| NE | BAL | 6.7 |
| SF | NYG | 1.9 |
COVER81
I like to predict stuff.
NFL Teams Ratings After Week 13
Since this system is predictive, not retrodictive, I subtracted 2.5 points from Houston and Chicago due to the loss of their starting quarterbacks. Why 2.5 points? According to PBR's research, it's basically what an average starting QB is worth over his replacement. According to Advanced NFL Stats, Schaub may actually be worth 7 points (the average QB over there scores an equivalent of around 3.5 points a game, but I'm not sure what it says what a replacement QB's level is), Cutler a pedestrian 2.5 - which is actually pretty good for a Bears starting QB.
Home team advantage of last 10 years is worth around 2.5 points, not 3 as commonly believed. This is probably why the away team covers the spread 51.5% of the time.
Consider this system Version 0.2.
This is not what I base the weekly game predictions on.
| TEAM | PWR RTG |
|---|---|
| GB | 10.7 |
| NO | 9.7 |
| BAL | 6.2 |
| SF | 5.3 |
| TEN | 4.7 |
| DET | 4.3 |
| CIN | 4.0 |
| MIA | 4.0 |
| PIT | 3.8 |
| ATL | 3.7 |
| SEA | 3.6 |
| NE | 3.2 |
| OAK | 3.0 |
| TB | 2.8 |
| HOU | 2.0 |
| CHI | 1.9 |
| DAL | 0.5 |
| NYG | 0.3 |
| CAR | -0.4 |
| DEN | -0.7 |
| MIN | -0.8 |
| SD | -0.9 |
| KC | -1.5 |
| BUF | -1.9 |
| CLE | -2.4 |
| PHI | -2.6 |
| NYJ | -2.9 |
| JAC | -2.9 |
| WAS | -3.6 |
| STL | -4.0 |
| IND | -6.2 |
Archives
NFL Teams Ratings After Week 2
| TEAM | OVERALL | OFF RK | DEF RK |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 2.5 | 1 | 20 |
| GB | 1.9 | 3 | 18 |
| BUF | 1.9 | 2 | 22 |
| DET | 1.8 | 7 | 2 |
| OAK | 1.5 | 4 | 21 |
| TEN | 1.4 | 8 | 3 |
| HOU | 1.3 | 6 | 8 |
| NYJ | 1.2 | 18 | 1 |
| CIN | 1.0 | 9 | 5 |
| NO | 1.0 | 5 | 24 |
| DAL | 1.0 | 11 | 6 |
| WAS | 0.8 | 13 | 11 |
| PHI | 0.7 | 10 | 14 |
| BAL | 0.7 | 21 | 4 |
| NYG | 0.6 | 16 | 10 |
| ARI | 0.2 | 17 | 25 |
| ATL | 0.2 | 22 | 16 |
| SF | 0.1 | 24 | 7 |
| MIN | 0.1 | 20 | 19 |
| CAR | 0.1 | 12 | 30 |
| SD | 0.0 | 14 | 29 |
| PIT | -0.2 | 25 | 15 |
| MIA | -0.2 | 15 | 31 |
| CLE | -0.2 | 27 | 9 |
| DEN | -0.3 | 23 | 23 |
| IND | -0.4 | 28 | 13 |
| TB | -0.5 | 19 | 32 |
| CHI | -0.7 | 29 | 17 |
| STL | -0.7 | 26 | 26 |
| SEA | -1.2 | 30 | 27 |
| JAC | -2.1 | 32 | 12 |
| KC | -2.5 | 31 | 28 |
NFL Week 3 Predictions
| HOME | AWAY | HOME MARGIN |
|---|---|---|
| BUF | NE | -5.1 |
| CAR | JAC | 3.2 |
| CHI | GB | -3.0 |
| CIN | SF | -0.5 |
| CLE | MIA | 4.6 |
| IND | PIT | -12.2 |
| MIN | DET | -3.5 |
| NO | HOU | 3.8 |
| OAK | NYJ | -4.1 |
| PHI | NYG | 8.2 |
| SD | KC | 14.3 |
| SEA | ARI | -5.9 |
| STL | BAL | -5.8 |
| TB | ATL | 3.8 |
| TEN | DEN | 5.5 |
| DAL | WAS | 4.4 |
NFL Teams Ratings After Week 3
| TEAM | OVERALL | OFF RK | DEF RK |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 7.3 | 4 | 9 |
| BUF | 6.6 | 1 | 20 |
| NYG | 5.0 | 6 | 8 |
| OAK | 5.0 | 3 | 22 |
| BAL | 5.0 | 12 | 3 |
| TEN | 4.7 | 19 | 1 |
| NE | 4.0 | 2 | 29 |
| DET | 3.5 | 18 | 4 |
| CIN | 3.0 | 16 | 6 |
| SF | 2.4 | 27 | 2 |
| DAL | 2.0 | 25 | 5 |
| HOU | 1.7 | 5 | 28 |
| MIN | 1.6 | 11 | 18 |
| NO | 1.4 | 7 | 26 |
| ATL | 1.4 | 21 | 11 |
| WAS | 1.0 | 14 | 19 |
| NYJ | 0.7 | 20 | 17 |
| SD | 0.6 | 9 | 24 |
| IND | 0.5 | 22 | 12 |
| PHI | 0.3 | 10 | 25 |
| ARI | 0.1 | 15 | 23 |
| CLE | -0.1 | 24 | 14 |
| PIT | -0.2 | 23 | 16 |
| TB | -0.3 | 17 | 21 |
| SEA | -0.5 | 29 | 10 |
| MIA | -0.8 | 8 | 31 |
| CAR | -0.9 | -0.9 | 30 |
| CHI | -1.2 | 30 | 13 |
| DEN | -1.2 | 28 | 15 |
| JAC | -3.0 | 32 | 7 |
| STL | -5.7 | 26 | 32 |
| KC | -5.9 | 31 | 27 |
NFL Week 4 Predictions
| HOME | AWAY | HOME MARGIN |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | NYG | -1.5 |
| BAL | NYJ | 9.1 |
| CHI | CAR | 8.3 |
| CIN | BUF | -1.0 |
| CLE | TEN | 2.1 |
| DAL | DET | 3.7 |
| GB | DEN | 13.5 |
| HOU | PIT | 4.3 |
| JAC | NO | -2.4 |
| KC | MIN | -3.1 |
| OAK | NE | -1.0 |
| PHI | SF | 6.7 |
| SD | MIA | 7.5 |
| SEA | ATL | -2.0 |
| STL | WAS | -1.9 |
| TB | IND | 8.7 |